CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-05-11T02:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-11T02:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14737/-1
CME Note: The source of this signature is somewhat unclear. It could be associated with the arrival of a combination of 2 CMEs that started on 2019-05-10T19:09Z and 2019-05-11T02:39Z. From Dr. Lan Jian: The flux ropes separated by sharp boundaries could be due to the interaction of multiple CMEs. From the in-situ observations and Enlil modeling results, Earth was in the rarefaction before the CME arrived, this may be why the CMEs reached Earth so fast.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-13T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T07:00Z
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2019 May 11 1130 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
In the vicinity of Catania group 16 (NOAA AR 2740), located near disk centre, two
material eruptions can be seen in EUV images. The first around 18:25UT and the second
around 23:55UT. Coronagraph images from STEREO A also confirm two corresponding CMEs.
In currently available coronagraph images from Earth perspective the signatures are
less clear. SoHO/LASCO C2 shows, from around 3:02UT, a mainly North-East bound CME of
which the angular extent is hard to estimate given the faint signature. It could
however be classified as partial halo and correspondingly the presence of an Earth
directed component should be considered. With the initiation parameters unclear, the
interplay between both CME's is hard to assess. Speed is best estimated from STEREO A
data and is for both CMEs low, 300-400 km/s. Based on these initiation parameters, a
possible arrival of these CME's is not expected before noon, May 15 and 7:00UT, May
16 respectively.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #

Lead Time: 58.60 hour(s)
Difference: -56.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2019-05-11T11:30Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement